BOTH political parties had their share of winners and losers this election, but there was one clear set of losers: the pollsters.
Pollsters greatly underestimated the level of support for President Trump in many states – something that also happened in 2016, but didn’t get fixed.
Polling on Senate races around the country was even more off base. In the Maine U.S. Senate race, for example, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in every major poll. One had Collins 12 points behind. But she ended up winning by a 9-point margin.
The same scenario played out in Montana.
The Mountain States Poll sponsored by MSU-Billings gave Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock a 48-47 point lead over Sen. Steve Daines. The GOP senator won by 10 points.
Same for the MSU-Bozeman poll, which gave Bullock a 2-point edge a couple weeks before the election. Likewise, that same poll gave GOP state Auditor Matt Rosendale a 48-46 percent edge over Democrat Kathleen Williams in their congressional contest, but Rosendale won by a 56-44 margin.
In the Mountain States Poll, Rosendale led Williams 47-46.
One of the few races that a Montana poll came close to getting right was the governor’s race. The MSU poll had GOP Congressman Greg Gianforte leading Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney leading 47 to 42. Gianforte actually won by more than 12 points, but that was still more than the poll's 3,9 percent margin of error.
The MSU-Billings poll had Gianforte and Cooney in a dead heat at 45 each.
From July 1 until Election Day, 17 polls took the pulse of Montana voters, and virtually all of them declared the Senate race a neck-and-neck affair. Some said Bullock was leading by as much as 4 points. Only one pollster, Emerson College, came close to getting a true measure of the sentiment of voters, having Daines up by 6 points in one and 9 by another.
In an interview aired Sunday with GOP and Democratic strategists Ashlee Strong and Eric Stern, MTN’s Jay Kohn asked about the polls. Both Strong and Stern said private polls done for the parties and candidates have been a lot more accurate than public polls, particularly those done by Montana's universities. What's the point, they agreed, in having taxpayers fund polls that have been so far off the mark in several election cycles?
Update: MTN's Mike Dennison has done a story in which he asks how the pollsters "missed the mark so badly." Possible factors, according to the analysts and pollsters he talked to: Many GOP voters are reluctant to talk to pollsters as they see them as part of the liberal media, or the polls used faulty methodologies that didn't adjust for the number of GOP voters there are in Montana. Another possibility: the unexpectedly large turnout worked to the advantage of the GOP -- and wasn't factored into poll possibilities.
UM political scientist Rob Saldin noted that the internal polling done by campaigns was closer to the mark. Still, Saldin said, they were "every bit as surprised – not necessarily in terms of who won, but by the huge margins that we saw the Republican candidates win by.”
BESIDES bombarding Montana readers with political news, five Montana daily newspapers have started to roll out endorsements of candidates for state office. As of Oct. 30, they'd done 32. The most notable thing about them? All but five -- or about 85 percent -- have gone to Democrats.
Conservatives will say they aren't surprised; it is just more evidence of media bias. Liberals -- and journalists -- will say Democrats just have superior candidates this cycle.
In an editorial endorsing five Democrats in down-ballot contests, the Bozeman Chronicle acknowledged that its decision will "bring into question our impartiality and ability to make nonpartisan calls." But it argued it wasn't swayed by political parties but by the need to endorse "the best candidate in each particular race,"
In that editorial, the paper endorsed Democrats Shane Morigeau for auditor, Melissa Romano for school superintendent, Raph Graybill for attorney general, Bryce Bennett for secretary of state, and Tom Woods for PSC. The paper also has endorsed Mike Cooney for governor, Kathleen Williams for Congress, and Steve Bullock for the Senate.
Here are the other four newspapers and their endorsements so far. We'll update the list as they continue to come in.
Billings Gazette: Greg Gianforte for governor, Troy Downing for auditor and Matt Rosendale for US House (three of only five Republicans to get an endorsement so far). Also, Democrats Bullock for governor, Romano for school superintendent, Bennett for secretary of state, Graybill for attorney general, and Valerie McMurtry for PSC.
Helena Independent Record: Cooney for governor. Also, Romano and Morigeau, as well as Republicans Austin Knudsen for attorney general and Chrisi Jacobsen for secretary of state, the only other GOP candidates beside Rosendale and Downing to win newspaper nods.
Missoulian: Bullock for US Senate, Williams for US House, Cooney for governor, Bennett for secretary of state, Graybill for attorney general, Romano for superintendent, Morigeau for auditor, and Monica Tranel for PSC.
Montana Standard: Bennett for secretary of state, Graybill for attorney general, Bullock for US Senate, and Cooney for governor.
The Senate, shown here in a floor session earlier this year, on Tuesday endorsed legislation calling for more verification checks on state assistance programs. (Helena IR)
A daily digest of Montana news
Feb. 27, 2021
Senate OKs plan to get more checks on assistance programs
House torpedoes proposal for partisan judicial elections
Daines, other GOP nominees grill Interior nominee Haaland
2 men wrongfully convicted in murder get $6M each in settlements
Lawmakers table bill that aimed to abolish state's death penalty
Upset by Bozeman's tight housing market, man begs to buy w/ signs
Senate OKs bill that would allow students to opt out of sex-ed classes
Bills aim to alleviate bottleneck of bison at Yellowstone's border
Senate rejects bill that would make PSC an appointed body
Gianforte uses his personal plane, not the state's aircraft
Names of 3 Billings teens killed in crash are released
2 MT snowmobilers rescued after 2 nights in Wyoming mountains
MT counties use different strategies to vaccinate residents
As legislative session nears its mid-point, bills pile up
GOP legislators go after ballot collection law struck down by judges
House panel endorses 16 bills in session that runs all day
Environmentalists pressure Daines to confirm Haaland
Butte house at center of fight over depth of preservation efforts
Bills that expand wolf-trapping rules on way to governor's desk
MT's top health-policy analyst recruited to help other states
MT & the Dakotas were COVID hot spots, then suddenly they weren't
Butte debates what to do with old buildings: Tear down or preserve
Interstate 90 near Big Timber blocked by crashed semis
3 Billings teens killed in rollover crash Friday
Panel moves to cut funding for Boulder facility for disabled
Hi-Line officials rip Biden's decision to shut Keystone pipeline
Committee rejects incumbent Fish & Wildlife commissioner McKean
Panel removes funding for 2 new district judges from budget
Hunters, landowners and wildlife managers team up to fight CWD
Laurel man convicted in stabbing death again sentenced to 80 years
2 men exonerated of 1994 murder get $12 million in settlements
Panel adds more money to state health department budget
Judge rules for Culbertson in access dispute against Knudsen family
Lawmaker wants to scrap some campaign contribution limits
Rosendale introduces bill to streamline forest management reviews
Dillon businessman pleads not guilty to charges related to Capitol riot
Gov signs law that eases gun restrictions, allows guns on campuses
Body of missing girl, 8, found on Crow Reservation
Gianforte wants state employees to stay masked
Bill would stop state from handling anonymous child-abuse reports
Faucci urges Montanans to get vaccine in UM Zoom talk
Supreme Court upholds permit for proposed silver mine near Noxon
Butte bus hijacker gets 10 years in custody of mental-health officials
Firefighters rescue parrot from house fire, end up with new mascot
Lawmakers wade into fight over maintenance of Colstrip units
Colorado medical school proposes Billings campus
New York medical school eyes Great Falls site
MT firms, others get almost half a billion dollars in PPP loans
Commissioner reminds Montanans to think about flood insurance
Sponsor withdraws bill that would cut benefits of solar net metering
Bozeman airport adding summer flights to Phoenix
Big-league luxury hotel opening later this year at Big Sky
Bills would allow MT college athletes to profit from their names
Lady Cats snare 88-80 win in OT from Idaho State
Lady Griz win 5th in a row, defeating Eastern Washington 65-62
Grizzlies lose again by score of 90-76 to Eastern Washington
Idaho State snaps Lady Cats eight-game win streak
Eastern Washington wallops Grizzlies, 90-76
Lady Griz pick up 4th straight win, beating Eastern Washington
UM coach: Transfer policies, pandemic presenting unique challenges
Daines should give Haaland a fair hearing as Interior nominee
Keep the Judicial Nominating Commission in place
Biden's mask mandate for federal lands makes sense in many cases
Legislature must keep caucuses open to public and press
Biden should reconsider Keystone pipeline cancellation
2 Montana college professors call for Daines' resignation
Supreme Court pick for redistricting panel has partisan record
Daines, Rosendale complicit in violence at US Capitol
Vintage images of a Missoula photographer resurface
Blackfoot sculptor overcame disabilities to produce formidable art
MT actress Lily Gladstone to star in 'Killers of the Flower Moon'
Author looks at his grandmother's unsolved murder in Butte in 1940
Flathead furrier one of the last of a dying breed
Couple forced into long-distance relationship, tho they live miles apart
Whitefish man ready to take nation by storm -- in steinholding
Indie movie filmed in Flathead to be released Feb. 12
CALENDAR
Under the Big Sky Music Festival postponed until 2021
MSU's Kenny Chesney concert rescheduled for July of 2021
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