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​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​              A daily digest of Montana news


Jan. 16, 2021

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Megan Thorstenson, shown sitting on the steps of her Butte home, recently won the $1 million grand prize in the Montana Millionaire lottery. (Montana Standard)

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​​​​​BOTH political parties had their share of winners and losers this election, but there was one clear set of losers: the pollsters.

Pollsters greatly underestimated the level of support for President Trump in many states – something that also happened in 2016, but didn’t get fixed.

Polling on Senate races around the country was even more off base. In the Maine U.S. Senate race, for example, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in every major poll. One had Collins 12 points behind. But she ended up winning by a 9-point margin.

The same scenario played out in Montana.

The Mountain States Poll sponsored by MSU-Billings gave Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock a 48-47 point lead over Sen. Steve Daines. The GOP senator won by 10 points.

Same for the MSU-Bozeman poll, which gave Bullock a 2-point edge a couple weeks before the election. Likewise, that same poll gave GOP state Auditor Matt Rosendale a 48-46 percent edge over Democrat Kathleen Williams in their congressional contest, but Rosendale won by a 56-44 margin.

In the Mountain States Poll, Rosendale led Williams 47-46.

One of the few races that a Montana poll came close to getting right was the governor’s race. The MSU poll had GOP Congressman Greg Gianforte leading Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney leading 47 to 42. Gianforte actually won by more than 12 points, but that was still more than the poll's 3,9 percent margin of error.

The MSU-Billings poll had Gianforte and Cooney in a dead heat at 45 each.

From July 1 until Election Day, 17 polls took the pulse of Montana voters, and virtually all of them declared the Senate race a neck-and-neck affair. Some said Bullock was leading by as much as 4 points. Only one pollster, Emerson College, came close to getting a true measure of the sentiment of voters, having Daines up by 6 points in one and 9 by another.

In an interview aired Sunday with GOP and Democratic strategists Ashlee Strong and Eric Stern, MTN’s Jay Kohn asked about the polls. Both Strong and Stern said private polls done for the parties and candidates have been a lot more accurate than public polls, particularly those done by Montana's universities. What's the point, they agreed, in having taxpayers fund polls that have been so far off the mark in several election cycles?

Update: MTN's Mike Dennison has done a story in which he asks how the pollsters "missed the mark so badly." Possible factors, according to the analysts and pollsters he talked to: Many GOP voters are reluctant to talk to pollsters as they see them as part of the liberal media, or the polls used faulty methodologies that didn't adjust for the number of GOP voters there are in Montana. Another possibility: the unexpectedly large turnout worked to the advantage of the GOP -- and wasn't factored into poll possibilities. 

UM political scientist Rob Saldin noted that the internal polling done by campaigns was closer to the mark. Still, Saldin said, they were "every bit as surprised – not necessarily in terms of who won, but by the huge margins that we saw the Republican candidates win by.”  


BESIDES bombarding Montana readers with political news, five Montana daily newspapers have started to roll out endorsements of candidates for state office. As of Oct. 30, they'd done 32. The most notable thing about them? All but five -- or about 85 percent -- have gone to Democrats.

Conservatives will say they aren't surprised; it is just more evidence of media bias. Liberals -- and journalists -- will say Democrats just have superior candidates this cycle.

In an editorial endorsing five Democrats in down-ballot contests, the Bozeman Chronicle acknowledged that its decision will "bring into question our impartiality and ability to make nonpartisan calls." But it argued it wasn't swayed by political parties but by the need to endorse "the best candidate in each particular race,"​

​In that editorial, the paper endorsed Democrats Shane Morigeau for auditor, Melissa Romano for school superintendent, Raph Graybill for attorney general, Bryce Bennett for secretary of state, and Tom Woods for PSC. The paper also has endorsed Mike Cooney for governor, Kathleen Williams for Congress, and Steve Bullock for the Senate.

Here are the other four newspapers and their endorsements so far. We'll update the list as they continue to come in.

Billings Gazette: Greg Gianforte for governor, Troy Downing for auditor and Matt Rosendale for US House (three of only five Republicans to get an endorsement so far). Also, Democrats Bullock for governor, Romano for school superintendent, Bennett for secretary of state, Graybill for attorney general, and Valerie McMurtry for PSC.

Helena Independent Record: Cooney for governor. Also, Romano and Morigeau, as well as Republicans Austin Knudsen for attorney general and Chrisi Jacobsen for secretary of state, the only other GOP candidates beside Rosendale and Downing to win newspaper nods.

Missoulian: Bullock for US Senate, Williams for US House, Cooney for governor, Bennett for secretary of state, Graybill for attorney general, Romano for superintendent, Morigeau for auditor, and Monica Tranel for PSC.

Montana Standard: Bennett for secretary of state, Graybill for attorney general, Bullock for US Senate, and Cooney for governor.​




Butte restaurant worker Montana's newest millionaire with lottery win

Man who argued Crow hunting rights in high court denies sex charges

About 3K Flathead residents still without power due to high winds

Family of man who killed himself in Yellowstone Co jail gets settlement

Legislators haggle over mask rules in offices of staffers

Attorney general orders dismissal of case against Bozeman bar

Bill would require elected officials to OK health orders

Legislators take a look at local nicotine-ban rules

Gianforte directive: Bullock orders stand unless conflict with new ones

Speaker drops out of MLK Day ceremony to protest Daines' inclusion

Lincoln Co deputy shoots man while investigating domestic dispute

Powerful wind gusts wreak havoc across Montana

Winds were so strong they knocked out NorthWestern's outage map

Governor rolls back some COVID restrictions

Debate over campus carry devolves into fight over rules

Gianforte back to work after negative COVID test, potential exposure

Legislators hear bill that aims to limit governor's emergency powers

Man involved in shooting aims for medical job after getting pardon

Daines, Tester trade barbs over GOP challenge to election results

BNSF plan to curb track deaths allows 18 grizzlies to die over 7 years

Sage grouse review done, but little time for Trump changes

Dem leader raps governor for not lowering flag to honor fallen officers

University System enrollments dip 7.2% as pandemic rages on

2nd lawmaker, who hasn't been at Capitol, tests positive for COVID

Study: Wildfire smoke creates half of the air pollution in US West

Cooke City avalanche sweeps 3 down mountain, injures 2

Lawmakers not yet ready to OK funding for pot regulation/tax program

Billings teachers vaccinated out of turn in St. Vincent snafu

Politics run deep in Speaker Wylie Galt's family

Rosendale: Dems using false claims of crisis to try to dump Trump

Supreme Court orders resentencing for man who killed 3 in Great Falls

Montana may be getting closer to the day it allows grizzly bear hunting

Governor's budget unlikely to call for college tuition freeze

Claims that led to attack in nation's Capitol echo in Montana

State gives vaccine priority to those over 70, having medical issues

State reports 555 new COVID cases, 5 deaths

Lawmakers to debate changes to Habitat Montana easement program


BUSINESS / ECONOMY

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Federal tax reform removes headache for MT alcohol industry

Butte's book stores say they had banner year in 2020

Push for right-to-work law likely coming this session

House panel endorses loans for developers of affordable housing

Gianforte names Kalispell executive as new head of Commerce

Montana's alcohol sales surge during pandemic

State owes Lolo liquor store over $5M after losing court ruling


SPORTS / OUTDOORS 


Griz, Cats opt out of Big Sky spring football season

Lady Cats rally for road win over Portland State

Bobcats hang on to beat Portland State 71-64

Griz pick up 2nd Big Sky win, defeating Northern Arizona

Lady Griz knick Northern Arizona on the road, 83-74

Southern Utah leaving Big Sky to join WAC

Former Bobcat Alex Singleton one of few bright spots for Eagles


OPINION 


2 Montana college professors call for Daines' resignation

Supreme Court pick for redistricting panel has partisan record

Daines, Rosendale complicit in violence at US Capitol

Daines and Rosendale should apologize

Bullock: Serving as MT's governor was a humbling privilege

Daines' electoral move is extreme and dangerous

Daines deserves much of the credit for speedy delivery of vaccines

Owners of Colstrip facility should clean up ash ponds correctly


FEATURES


Writer's new novel finds conflict and beauty in the Bitterroot Valley

How Loren Acton got from a Lewistown ranch to outer space

Wilderness packer turns horseshoes into pieces of art

Butte men restore Columbia Gardens coaster car to former glory

Missoula author writes of 'The Most Sneakin'est Man that Ever Was'

A Montana child's Christmas letter from 1864 has parallels to 2020


CALENDAR​​

Under the Big Sky Music Festival postponed until 2021​​

MSU's Kenny Chesney concert rescheduled for July of 2021

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